Paul Newton

  • Candidate, Master of Philosophy of System Dynamics, University of Bergen, Norway
  • Visiting Scholar, Cornell University
  • Principal, StewardshipModeling.com, helping organizations and communities develop internal system dynamics capacity

Resume                                                                   Email: paulnewton@StewardshipModeling.com

Some Recent Papers:

1.    Generic Process Proposal for Acculturation of a Business Location to System Dynamics.  A paper developed from a presentation I prepared for one of my Door County students to present to the June 2002 annual invitation-only "Gathering" of the System Dynamics Institute, Inc. held at Montebello, Quebec, Canada.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that efforts to acculturate business locations to system dynamics (SD) are often less successful than anticipated. Experiences teaching SD in Door County, Wisconsin, at Cornell University, and other places, suggest a process that holds promise to significantly increase the probability of SD acculturation in any community of adults.  Translating these experiences to the business community, this paper outlines this process in the context of a business location.

2.    Repeated Overshoot and Collapse Behavior: An Example from the Petroleum Industry.  Paper to be presented in the Oil and Gas Industry Session at the July 2002 International System Dynamics Society Conference in Palermo, Italy.

Repeated overshoot and collapse behavior is commonly observed both in manufacturing and service industries, as well as in other social and ecological systems. This paper uses an example from the petroleum industry to illustrate a causal structure that can give rise to such behavior. Increasing business unit performance repeatedly erodes and overshoots the capacity of the business to continue to produce increasing performance.  When business unit performance falls due to eroded capacity, the capacity gradually recovers, eventually enabling a new spurt of business growth.  Changing the capacity acquisition policy shifts business performance behavior from repeated overshoot and collapse to desired exponential growth. Model extensions, including balancing capacity acquisition against the risk of having too much capacity in a market downturn, are discussed.

3.    I initiated, sponsored, and ran the first Modeling Assistance Workshop at the International System Dynamics Society Conference in Atlanta in 2001, and Dr. Jack Homer and I are sponsoring and running an expanded version at the International System Dynamics Society Conference in Palermo, Italy in late July 2002.  

The workshop provides coaching, from system dynamics modeling experts, for modelers who desire assistance with their modeling work.  The 2001 workshop was so successful that Dr. Jack Homer of Homer Consulting, Inc., one of the field's leading system dynamicists, asked to co-sponsor the 2nd Modeling Assistance Workshop to be held at the 2002 conference in Palermo, Italy.  The System Dynamics Society liked the idea so much that they suggested we hold two workshops in Palermo rather than the one that I had offered in Atlanta; in Palermo we are also offering coaching by modeler request anytime during the conference.  

4..An account of a system dynamics course for high school students and teachers, and community sustainability activists.  Paper presented at the 2000 International System Dynamics Society Conference in Bergen, Norway.

Research

University of Bergen Course Work Projects:

Other papers:

Modeling Questions

Here I hope to post modeling questions that I have as part of the process of making it easy to solicit help from others.  I hope to turn this one day into a site where I can post not only my modeling questions, but others' as well. 

 

In order to view the PDF files listed on this page, you must first have a copy of "Acrobat Reader". If your version of Acrobat Reader does not open the pdf file, you may get the LATEST version of Adobe Acrobat Reader here.